Does Cannabis Legalization Lead to More Road Deaths?

Does cannabis legalization actually lead to an increase in impaired driving or impaired-driving related deaths? Some recent studies have attempted to find a causal link between legalization and these events. However, the studies are flawed.

Anupriya and Graham (2024) conducted a study on the road safety implications of legalizing cannabis in the U.S., finding that legalization led to a significant increase in traffic fatalities. The increases ranged from 15% to 38%. Their methodology, which is flawed, involved econometric modelling. The authors argued this method was better than simulator and epidemiological studies at capturing the impact of cannabis on road safety. However, econometric modelling is not effective for time-series data, and has been subject to historical skepticism. It is connected only to limited contributions to knowledge advancement. Anupriya and Graham’s approach also importantly lacks data on cannabis-involved fatal crashes. This clearly raises serious doubts about the comprehensiveness and accuracy of their findings.

Despite their claims, there is ongoing debate about the scientific merit of their conclusions and the broader utility of econometric modelling in understanding complex issues such as the effects of cannabis legalization on road safety.

The study was effectively trend-based. The authors found that the 15 to 30% increases in traffic fatalities, followed the implementation of recreational cannabis laws. But it did not actually look at whether the fatalities themselves involved cannabis. It was correlative, not causative.

As noted earlier, econometric modeling, is a point of contention. Anupriya and Graham claim that it offers superior insights compared to other approaches. They believe econometric modeling can accurately capture the nuanced effects of cannabis legalization on road safety. But there is no nuance when the causation of the collision is unknown, as is whether cannabis involvement existed. Factors like weather patterns, increase in road users, relative level of experience and age of road users, increases or decreases of speed limits, and increases or decreases in enforcement could all explain the results.

Anupriya and Graham’s study appears to draw from previous research, notably influenced by Cole’s work in 2018. However, one notable limitation is the absence of data specifically related to cannabis-involved fatal crashes. This raises concerns about the comprehensiveness and accuracy of their findings.

Despite their claims, the scientific community remains divided on the validity of their conclusions and the overall utility of econometric modeling in understanding complex issues such as the effects of cannabis legalization on road safety.

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